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1 hour ago, Chilly said:

So what is it with toilet paper hoarding?  It's the same in the UK.  I just don't get it.

I don't think it is hoarding as much as just what it looks like when a crisis causes everyone to put in some essentials if they can't get to the store for a few weeks. Some things like TP is on everyone's list and stores don't stock enough for everyone to buy some at the same time. Went to the store yesterday and lots and lots of people with full carts and empty shelves. No one seemed panicked to me, they just all wanted to have full pantry if the whole family gets the virus and they are laid up for a couple weeks. Also I think lots of people want to just not go out for a while if this virus starts blowing through their area. Watch several people coughing into their hand and then rummaging through stuff on the rack, one lady must have done this 3,4 times as she rummaged through tomatoes. It stays empty because the stores dont want to have 3 times the inventory when the crisis is over so they just order to replace what sold but nothing extra.

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Shows must realize that if they reschedule there are going to be problems with artists being double booked. How well they handle it (or don't) could have a huge effect on how willing artists are to wo

Time to make small stuff if a recession  kicks in-thats what I have done and done very well the past 4 of them. Small stuff sells no matter whats going on. When I hear that on the news for awhile

So for those who don’t know, Alberta’s economy is desperately tied to oil, and has been for many decades. Boom and bust cycles are all I’ve ever grown up with. The spending on all kinds of idiot thing

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On 3/13/2020 at 11:00 AM, Stephen said:

you put the equivalent of a modest car note in a market fund each month you will be a millionaire when you retire if the market does the same over the next 35 years that it

10% is very optimistic, 4% is considered more likely. I would love to get a 10% return for 30 years, who wouldn't

On 3/13/2020 at 10:02 AM, GEP said:

I hate borrowing money and hate paying interest, no matter how low. My comment says that I always keep enough cash flow on hand

+1 ,  I totally agree with you. This is how I operated for decades. I always kept a minimum of 6 month expenses in cash on hand in case something happens.

But stuff happens and its always a good idea to keep the borrowing idea in the back seat just in case as the need arises. The trick is never go in over your head.

Edited by Smokey2
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I just spoke to a friend (professianal potter like me) who only does shows and  some wholesale for income. His next 3 shows where canceelled in 3 states thru April. Wholesale orders are down as well as gallerys adjust to less customers. He is doing fine as he has a great cushion built up and is near retirement time.

The worst story is a friend of his was at a show setting up last Thursday at an Arizona show and about 3 hours into that process they cancelled the show .Now that hurt  i'm sure due to the traveling and hassel/expense to get there.

I just got into a show in May but they want zero money yet (which means they are close to cancelling and do not want to go thru the refunding if they do not have to)

I am planning on the show NOT happening.I'm sure my tiourist sale gallerys will take a hit. My supermarket sales will slow but still happen as folks need food.

I'm just planning on a slow down-and  its a good time to make stock and stockpile work.

 

Edited by Mark C.
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About 3 years ago my wife decided to open her own veterinary clinic, so in preparation we buckled down and spent 2 years paying off debt. We stopped putting money into retirement and college funds, and just focused on debt, paying off everything but the mortgage and one car. We then put everything we could into savings to get us by while the clinic was under construction and then growing clientele. I wish we had paid off the debt years ago. It wasn't nearly as difficult as we had thought it would be to cut back on spending and bulk up our savings, and not having the debt is a huge stress relief. I know it's difficult for a lot of people to be able to do that, but if it's possible people should do it, especially now that we're getting more natural disasters and pandemics.

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Another point about art festivals ... although the format is inherently unpredictable, that also means it's flexible. If my spring shows are cancelled and I end up with extra stock, I can sign up for an extra show or two in the fall, or even next year. The income is delayed, not lost. Unlike other industries, where the money they are losing now is gone for good. 

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Pottery made and finished is just like money in the bank is my thought. The sales will happen- just later.

On Debt for potters don't do it-I'm with GEP 100%  on this,live within your means. Potters incomes vary so much that debt shoulkd be avoided at all costs.

I have avoided debt my whole life .I do not pay interest of anything since paying off my property in 93. Buy a used car.

Pay off the mortgage if you have one 1st and foremost. Save as much as you can (Roths are best) . I like to vary the income streams and have written about this.

When you are young  and able try lots of new ways to sell-lots of shows to find what works and what does not.There is no other easy way to figure this out for potters.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Smokey2 said:

10% is very optimistic, 4% is considered more likely. I would love to get a 10% return for 30 years, who wouldn't

actually you should look this up, 10 is a little below the average over last 30. Of course history does not reflect future so the next 30 could be different. Mostly I was hoping to encourage some to check out the possibilties of saving while your young. The time value of money is amazing it you have a long runway.

Edited by Stephen
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I'm not as concerned about missing a few markets as I am about the long term effect this will have on the world economies. With the Dow and TSX both now in bear market territory, along with other world markets, I have concerns that if it's for any extended period of time it could trigger a recession.  Not that a bear market is always followed by a recession but there is that possibility. When the bottom dropped out of the markets in 07-09 sales were rough following that period for a few years. Not trying to fear monger but being cognizant of the possibility that a few missed markets could be the least of it.

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1 hour ago, Min said:

I'm not as concerned about missing a few markets as I am about the long term effect this will have on the world economies. With the Dow and TSX both now in bear market territory, along with other world markets, I have concerns that if it's for any extended period of time it could trigger a recession.  Not that a bear market is always followed by a recession but there is that possibility. When the bottom dropped out of the markets in 07-09 sales were rough following that period for a few years. Not trying to fear monger but being cognizant of the possibility that a few missed markets could be the least of it.

Yeah, there's not going to be a big bounce back from this.  Agriculture is just now coming to grips with what the upcoming seasons will be like with reduced labor and Mexico considering shuttering it's border with the US.  I'd love to be wrong but already we are seeing the bad news here in Seattle and they haven't even quarantined us yet.  As much as I'd like this to just be an overblown flu, the number of sick and dead seem to double every week.  Even though I'm a part time potter, my full time job is already suffering with cut hours and patient cancellations, very reminiscent of 2008.  Not sure by the summer there's going to be a whole lot of people interested in spending money in general.  Hold on to your hats folks!

I have a family member in Alberta and he still seems fairly jovial about the whole thing, I hope that continues up there!  

I drove into Seattle to the pottery supply store to stock up on slipcasting ingredients and I opted to get another half ton of clay as well in case we get quarantined.  There was no one on the streets, not even the homeless.  I was there and back in 45 minutes and it usually takes an hour just to get there.

 

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Time to make small stuff if a recession  kicks in-thats what I have done and done very well the past 4 of them. Small stuff sells no matter whats going on.

When I hear that on the news for awhile for say a month  or three then its make small stuff time. Heck I make small stuff all the time now as well-its always sells

Edited by Mark C.
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liam, ran into the same traffic here last night.   there was an Ikebana show in a local beach community center.  my neighbor was in charge of it and even though all kinds of things were cancelled, the event went on as scheduled.   i went to see what kind of containers they use and learned a lot.  will be able to make some interesting shapes now.

driving down was normal but my return trip was eerie.  nobody on the streets.  i traveled across st pete and was one of only 3 cars moving on central avenue, usually a busy road on a friday evening.  restaurants, stores, all but bars and drug stores seemed closed up tight.  it was only 8 pm.

 

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Welp, just like @neilestrick was referring to above, my April show was postponed to a weekend in October when I have already committed to another show. I have already paid both booth fees. Both shows have a no-refund policy. But one has an “act of god” clause and the other has a “catastrophic event” clause. Not sure if the current situation qualifies for either. Now I have to choose. The biggest factor will be if either show will refund my booth fee, and what percentage. It’s a paradox, because the show that acts more generously is the one I’d rather do. I’ll be doing a lot of begging and pleading in the next few days. 

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Shows must realize that if they reschedule there are going to be problems with artists being double booked. How well they handle it (or don't) could have a huge effect on how willing artists are to work with them in the future. This situation will expose their true colors. I choose to do a couple of shows every year not because they are the most profitable, but because they are a pleasure to do.

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So for those who don’t know, Alberta’s economy is desperately tied to oil, and has been for many decades. Boom and bust cycles are all I’ve ever grown up with. The spending on all kinds of idiot things in the boom times makes you think of the Great Gatsby, and the bust times, the vulnerable pay the price. 
But. There are always stories of help, and neighbours coming together, and people supporting people however they can. While there are awful stories (someone robbed a food bank yesterday!) and everyone is trying to win the internet with toilet paper jokes, there are also positive and good stories. China sent 1000 ventilators, a bunch of other necessary supplies and a specialized medical team to help Italy because China’s outbreak is calming down and Italy is in a crisis. While the Calgary hockey team laid off all its part time stadium workers and chose not to pay them unlike some organizations, someone else started up a gofundme and many of the individual players contributed thousands from their own pockets. There are silly (and kind of cool!) things, like the fact one of the cheese vendors at the farmer’s market will now deliver cheese to your house. There is a minus 27 C windchill this weekend, and fancy cheese delivery is now a thing!

What I know from living in a boom/bust economy is that panicking keeps people from being able to think creatively and solve the problems that are necessary to solve. Hoping for the best is just as important as planning for the worst. Don’t sit still. Supply the small things now, keep your head above water, because the people buying the small things now will be back for big things later. When the panic relaxes, people will decide to treat themselves again, and those weddings that got postponed will be attended later and still require gifts. Some will want some comfort items now. 

I suspect that when people are finally released from all this social distancing, they’ll make up for lost time as they’re able. 

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38 minutes ago, Callie Beller Diesel said:

They cancelled hockey and basketball, and they’re telling us all to stay home. There will be some predictable results. 

:lol:

The teen pregnancy rates are gonna be off the charts too, have already caught two couples in the midst of heavy petting during my afternoon walks.  Who would have thought that cancelling school would put hundreds of thousands of kids into unsupervised mischief making mode??? Hahah

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Something that’s been coming up on some of the Facebook pages are scams. Even though there are more people doing good, there are still profiteers out there reselling Clorox wipes in the Costco parking lot for extortionate prices. They’re getting arrested, but still. One of the ones that came across my view involved “organizers” taking Venmo or personal PayPal account transfers for “rescheduled” shows. We’ve always advocated vetting your shows on this forum, but everyone should be extra mindful to deal with vendors that comport themselves as professionals. As always, if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Use your credit card’s purchase protection if you haven’t dealt with an organization before. 

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I just cancelled my classes for the next two weeks. This morning I had decided that I would keep the studio open for those who wanted to come, and give a credit to those who chose to stay home. But then this afternoon the governor closed all bars and restaurants, so I figured it's getting serious enough that I should do my part. Even though my class sizes are small- no more than 10 people- it's impossible to keep safe distances from each other. Now I can have the studio all to myself for a while!

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14 minutes ago, Callie Beller Diesel said:

Something that’s been coming up on some of the Facebook pages are scams. Even though there are more people doing good, there are still profiteers out there reselling Clorox wipes in the Costco parking lot for extortionate prices. They’re getting arrested, but still. One of the ones that came across my view involved “organizers” taking Venmo or personal PayPal account transfers for “rescheduled” shows. We’ve always advocated vetting your shows on this forum, but everyone should be extra mindful to deal with vendors that comport themselves as professionals. As always, if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Use your credit card’s purchase protection if you haven’t dealt with an organization before. 

Wow people are preying on event vendors now???  That's insane!

My spring show has been rescheduled and they are offering refunds for people who can't attend the later date.  But if you give up your seat now there's no guarantee it'll be available come June.  I think I'll keep my booth and just let them hold onto my money for 6 months, but at the same time I'm thinking about the interest I'm losing letting them hold onto that wad.  

Keep a sharp eye I suppose, be skeptical, don't get desperate.

I see they've mandated closures of bars and restaurants across the US, not sure what the next steps are.

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